April 30, 2008

Books to Read While the Algae Grow in Your Fur, April 2008

Richard Bookstaber, A Demon of Our Own Design: Markets, Hedge Funds, and the Perils of Financial Innovation
One part "financial crises I have known" to one part general thoughts about market dynamics, and in particular the difficulties that arise due to complexity, "tight coupling" of markets, and leverage. The stories are going to be familiar to most people interested in the subject. The latter are interesting but under-argued. This is true even when I agree with him, about, e.g., the limitations of statistical modeling in financial markets. (The pages on Gödel's Theorem, the Heisenberg Uncertainty Principle and chaos were painful, but also completely logically independent of the stuff about finance.)
This may get a full review later. For now I'd just say that his main recommendations — avoid complex and novel financial instruments, avoid leverage, and avoid trying to optimize to current conditions, in favor of responding adequately to a wide range of situations, including ones you can't currently anticipate — are not bad as words of wisdom, but he has no hint as to how they could be implemented under current conditions, i.e., in the actually-existing capitalist financial system he describes.
This interview with Andrew Leonard in Salon serves as a decent summary.
John McGowan, American Liberalism
Unapologetic advocacy of modern liberalism as an attempt to provide equal and, crucially, effective freedom to all. Liberalism tries to achieve this by creating institutions which make arbitrary, unaccountable, unchecked power ineffective, because powers are checked and balanced by other sources of power and made to answer for theirs actions to those over whom power is exercised. (This distinguishes it from anarchism, whose ideal is simply to eliminate power.) The means by which these things are achieved are secondary, and evaluated pragmatically, by their effectiveness and side-effects in given conditions as compared to available alternatives. (Liberalism, though he doesn't put it this way, becomes in his hands a general ideology of the second best.) Seen thus, there is a clear line of descent between the 18th century liberalism of (most of) the American founders and the modern ideology, with the main development being taking seriously the bit about all men being created equal.
McGowan tries very hard here to reach the general educated public, rather than fellow academics, and almost succeeds. (There are turns of phrase which make it obvious that he's read his post-structuralists, but they're not unreadable ones.) The ideal book along these lines would be something at the level of, say, Milton Friedman's Free to Choose, and McGowan isn't there, is still a little too committed to academic forms, but this is clearly a labor of love, and I hope it will succeed in being influential.
(I confess, though, that I don't get why he thinks cell phones are worse for involvement in the public sphere than land-lines. The reverse, if anything.)
John McCleary, A First Course in Topology: Continuity and Dimension
Well-written textbook of topology, with a historical flavor (but modern methods), and an emphasis on (as the subtitle suggests) the problem of showing that dimension is invariant under continuous and invertible mappings (homeomorphisms). The reader needs a solid grasp of basic real analysis, linear algebra and abstract algebra.
William R. Cross, The Burned-Over District: The Social and Intellectual History of Enthusiastic Religion in Western New York, 1800--1850
A very solid historical work, though it presumes a fair degree of familiarity with the Protestant sects of early 19th century America, and even with the political history of New York. (I lose any right to review this by the fact that I had to look up the Holland Company, and was boggld by what I found.) Though he does not put it this way, a big part of his thesis as to why much but not all of western New York was so susceptible to religious and semi-religious fads then was that the pure products of Yankeedom go crazy. He makes this very plausible, in a way which nonetheless manages to be sympathetic to the enthusiasts.
Some remarks about feminine weaknesses, and the places where he seems to blame the Civil war on, of all people, the Abolitionists, are distasteful, but also a sign of the moral progress separating us from 1950...
David Ruelle, The Mathematician's Brain: A Personal Tour Through the Essentials of Mathematics and Some of the Great Minds Behind Them
An eminent mathematical physicist's take on mathematics and mathematicians. It manages to be sane, pragmatic, thoroughly unromantic, and yet highly enthusiastic for the subject. I actually think anyone who remembers high school math could follow everything; his trick, here, is to start with that sort of stuff and explain how mathematicians generalize it, why they generalize it, and especially why they generalize it in certain ways and not others. — Despite the title, this is strictly psychological, with negligible neuroscience. Given the utter lack of useful neuroscientific data about mathematical thinking, this is sound.
Draws on his "Conversations on mathematics with a visitor from outer space" (PDF), but with all traces of Gallic whimsy removed. (They would probably have become unbearable at book length.)
Matthew Yglesias, Heads in the Sand: How the Republicans Screw Up Foreign Policy and Foreign Policy Screws Up the Democrats
Young master Yglesias finally delivers on that early promise with a book, which, mercifully, is not about blogging and not just a collection of his blogging. Rather it is a sustained, sober, well-written argument in favor of robustly and forthrightly re-embracing the tradition of liberal internationalism, which tries to create institutions that will channel international affairs in peaceful directions and restrain raw power, in order to create a better world for all, including the powerful. As against this we have various strains of nationalist and/or imperialist viciousness and idiocy. Yglesias argues for liberal internationalism and against other ideologies on grounds of morals, practical benefits (the life of a hegemonic power being nasty, brutish and short), and sheer political expediency for the Democratic party, since the alternative hasn't been working out all that well. (He also offers up some brisk but sincere mea culpas.) I would have preferred more argument about morals, e.g. reminding people that the point of our country is not supposed to be a thousand years of crushing global military dominance, but suspect my own impulses in that direction.
Can be read in a day, if you're stuck on planes. Highly recommended if you're in to this sort of thing.
Warren Ellis and Salvador Larroca, Newuniversal: Everything Went White
Comic-book candy. — OK, it deserves a little more than that. From time to time Timothy Burke complains about how astonishing things happen in comic books, which ought to transform the world, but somehow life goes on exactly as before. This series starts from a world slightly askew from our own, where the appearance of superhumans does, in fact, change things.
Charles Stross, The Jennifer Morgue
Sequel to The Atrocity Archive. More lightheartedly chilling Lovecraftian spy fiction, from the perspective of the geeks in IT. Only, this time, haunted by the ghost of James Bond.
John Dewey, Liberalism and Social Action
"And now abideth liberty, individuality, and the critical use of intelligence, these three; but the greatest of these is intelligence." (Not an actual quotation.)
Brian K. Vaughan et al., Ex Machina: Tag; Fact vs. Fiction; March to War; Smoke Smoke; Power Down
Comic books. Actually, I read these back in February, not too long after the first in the series, but forgot to mention them here. I suspect I can guess where this is going, but even if I'm right I want to see how they get there.
Margaret Maron, Up Jumps the Devil; Killer Market; and Home Fires
More unreasonably charming mystery novels about murder in increasingly-exurban North Carolina. Series fatigue will doubtless set in eventually.

Books to Read While the Algae Grow in Your Fur; The Progressive Forces; Scientifiction and Fantastica; Cthulhiana; The Continuing Crises; Mathematics; Psychoceramica; The Beloved Republic; Minds, Brains, and Neurons; The Dismal Science

Posted by crshalizi at April 30, 2008 23:59 | permanent link

May Day 2008: Strike Against the War

What follows is a letter my friend John Burke has been circulating to friends. John used to blog as "reprieved" a.k.a. "rootlesscosmo", but gave that up. I wish he'd start again; but in the meanwhile I have his permission to reprint this.

I well remember how indignant a lot of antiwar people were at US organized labor's late, feeble, and sometimes dead wrong positions during the Vietnam War. Much of the then AFL-CIO leadership supported the war (though this support grew less vocal as the war dragged on under a Republican administration); so did a lot of union members, notably the building trades "hard hats" who waded into an antiwar rally in Manhattan in 1969. There were exceptions, including the International Longshore and Warehouse Union (ILWU) on the West Coast and, eventually, the United Auto Workers and a number of public employee unions; there was a labor coalition against the war, which formed a contingent at rallies, bought ads in the print media, and lent support to antiwar candidates.

What there wasn't, though, was any use of labor's economic strength--the strike weapon--to express opposition to the war, and that baffled and irritated some antiwar activists, especially those who didn't know much about labor law or labor history. (I know this doesn't apply to a lot of the recipients of this message; feel free to skip ahead if this is familiar material.) In particular, students from middle-class families weren't aware that under the Taft-Hartley amendments to the National Labor Relations Act, the use of the strike weapon for any purpose except in disputes about collective bargaining agreements is explicitly prohibited. They also may not have grasped the context of Taft-Hartley, which--though labor opposed it and Truman vetoed it, only to be overridden by a Republican-majority Congress--set in stone the main outlines of the postwar, Cold War-era "social compact:" labor would save job action for "pork chop" issues, confine its political action to endorsing candidates, impose a "loyalty" test on union leaders (which led to the expulsion of the Left-led unions from the CIO in 1949) and become a partner in the worldwide struggle against Communism. In return, major corporate employers would recognize unions and accept contracts that included regular productivity and cost-of-living increases; there were occasional disruptions in this cozy arrangement, but strike activity fell sharply from the big upsurge in 1946-47 and stayed low until the "stagflation" and mass layoffs that began in the mid-70's.

So job action against the Vietnam War would have been not only a challenge to the law but a sharp break with the postwar social compact, at a time when that compact's real meaning was thrown into sharp focus: labor was called on to support a Third World military intervention against a Communist-led liberation movement, at a moment when that intervention was producing a flush of prosperity and job growth. (Harry Bridges of the ILWU, when he launched a campaign to recruit new members from high-unemployment communities in response to the growth of war-related Pacific shipping, admitted ruefully that it was blood money.)

But the social compact started falling apart in the 1970's--the war turned out to be a large part of the reason, though I've promised myself not to use the word "dialectical" in this brief survey--and Reagan shredded it after 1980. The Cold War is over, the steady-growth postwar economy is over, union density as a percentage of the workforce is down from 35% to 13% (and less in the once-powerful industrial sector), anti-labor policies have been entrenched at the NLRB for many years, and neither the Carter nor Clinton administrations achieved labor's goal of legislative reform. (How hard did they try? Good question.)

In short, the deal that undergirded labor's qualified support for the Vietnam War has fallen apart.

The postwar social compact was a tradeoff; the other side went back on the bargain. It's time for labor to begin reclaiming its full range of tactical options in support of a robust participation in political life, on an agenda of labor's choosing without the artificial constraints imposed by Taft-Hartley. This will be, inevitably, a gradual process, and it may get ugly; I don't think there are any US Attorneys dumb enough to try to indict the ILWU leadership, but I may be being too generous. (It's a grave failing of mine.)

In any case, the first big crack in the ice is the ILWU's planned coastwide work stoppage tomorrow,

http://maydayilwu.googlepages.com/
which will also coincide with and support an immigrants' rights rally (and it certainly is refreshing that the immigrants' movement has reclaimed May Day as a day of workers' action; sure, the sectarian Lefties will try to hop aboard the bandwagon, but who cares?) I'll be marching tomorrow, with my United Transportation Union button on, prouder of the labor movement, my movement, than I've ever had a chance to feel in my life. Hope to see you there.

The only thing I have to add is that when John says "my United Transportation Union button", he means "the button of the union I belonged to during the more than a quarter century I worked on the railroads".

Manual trackback: Chaotic Soliloquy; Stripes with Plaid

The Continuing Crisis; The Progressive Forces

Posted by crshalizi at April 30, 2008 16:55 | permanent link

April 24, 2008

Putting the CART before the Horse-Race

Finally, from Amanda Cox at the Times, a decision tree students can believe in (click for full size):

Now, if I wanted to be a hobby-horse-riding pedant, I would compare this to a regression of vote-share on these covariates, and ask you rhetorically which one was easier to understand, and which gave more of a misleading impression of being more than a summary description; but I'll save that for the poor souls who take data mining in the fall. (This is from the 16th; it would be interesting to see how it changed after last Tuesday. Not that I'm bitter.)

Local interest note: Ms. Cox will be judging the final-project posters produced by the students in Prof. Nugent's graphics and visualization class (36-315), next Friday, 2 May, 12:30 to 1:20 pm in Porter Hall 125C. Friendly, non-psychotic visitors are welcome.

Via Flowing Data, via K. (Owing to the silly limits of the Times archives, I can't find the direct link to the story!)

Manual trackback: A Well, With Two Buckets

The Beloved Republic; Enigmas of Chance

Posted by crshalizi at April 24, 2008 09:20 | permanent link

April 23, 2008

From Your Lips...

I swear I had nothing to do with this; blame them.

Via Bill Tozier.

Complexity; Learned Folly

Posted by crshalizi at April 23, 2008 10:31 | permanent link

April 22, 2008

Voting will continue until morale improves (Public Service Announcement)

If you (1) live in Pennsylviana, (2) are registered to vote and (3) are not sure about where to vote, what to bring, etc., votesPA.com has the information you are looking for.

Manual trackback: Cranial Darwinism.

The Beloved Republic; Heard About Pittsburgh, PA

Posted by crshalizi at April 22, 2008 16:07 | permanent link

Chaos, Complexity, and Inference (36-462): Lecture Notes

This page will be updated as the semester goes on, if you want to use this RSS feed to track them. Alternately, lecture notes will be linked to on the course syllabus, which includes the readings.

Lecture 25 (April 22): Inference on networks
slides
Lecture 24 (April 15): Contagion on networks
slides
Lecture 23 (April 10): Collective phenomena and self-organization in agent-based models
slides
Lecture 22 (April 8): Agents and Agent-Based Models
slides
Lecture 21 (April 3): Complex networks 2
slides
Lecture 20 (April 1): Complex networks 1
slides
Lecture 19 (March 25): Inference from simulations
slides; R
Lecture 18 (March 20): Special problem-solving session for homework 2
partial solutions; R
Lecture 17 (March 18): Error Statistics and Severe Testing
slides
Lecture 16 (March 6): Heavy tails 4, testing and evaluation
slides and R
Lecture 15 (March 4): Heavy tails 3, estimation
slides
Lecture 14 (February 28): Heavy tails 2, origins
slides
Lecture 13 (February 26): Heavy tails 1, basics
General R files for the next several lectures
slides; R
Lecture 12 (February 21): Self-organization 2
slides
Lecture 11 (February 19): Cellular automata 2/Excitable media
slides
Lecture 10 (February 14): Cellular automata 1
slides
Lecture 9 (February 12): Self-organization 1
Philip and Phylis Morrison and the Office of Charles and Ray Eames, Powers of Ten
slides
see also: Pattern Formation in Cocktails
Lecture 8 (February 7): Determinism and randomness
Henri Poincaré, "Chance" (from Science and Method, 1908)
slides
Lecture 7 (February 5): Information theory
slides
M.C. Hawking, "Entropy", from Fear of a Black Hole [lyrics; mp3 (radio-safe Brief History of Rhyme version)]
Ray and Charles Eames, A Communications Primer
Lecture 6 (January 31): Inference for Markov chains and related processes
slides
Note: Maximum Likelihood Estimation for Markov Chains
Lecture 5 (January 29): Symbolic dynamics; stochastics from dynamics
slides
Note: More on the Topological Entropy Rate
Lecture 4 (January 24): Attractor reconstruction and nonlinear prediction
slides (see slides for R examples).
Note: Nonlinear prediction, nearest-neighbors, kernel methods
Lorenz time-series generator, written in Perl.
the Lorenz time series used in the lecture
Lecture 3 (January 22): Attractors
slides; R
Lecture 2 (January 17): More chaos
slides; R
The Arnold Cat Map Movie (starring Marlowe the Cat, directed by Evelyn Sander)
Lecture 1 (January 15): What is a dynamical system? What is chaos? What is a simulation?
slides; R

Corrupting the Young; Complexity; Enigmas of Chance; Networks

Posted by crshalizi at April 22, 2008 16:03 | permanent link

April 19, 2008

"Thou Shalt Not Follow a Multitude to Do Evil"

From William R. Cross, The Burned-Over District: The Social and Intellectual History of Enthusiastic Religion in Western New York, 1800--1850 (reprint; New York: Harper, 1965, pp. 81--82):

The whole tribe of Yorkers exhibited a trait which bears on the nature of Burned-Over District credulity. It ranks in importance with the canniness and moral intensity customarily attributed to Yankees and relates to both, but has been less noticed because it is difficult to define and isolate. Against the "holy enterprise of minding other people's business," which produced a marked community-mindedness, these folk balanced a stubborn intrspection in the fashioning of personal beliefs, which recognized no authority this side of Heaven. Frank curiosity, pride in independent thinking, a feeling that action should be motivated by sound logic and never by whimsy, a profound skepitcism of any rationalization looking to less than the supposed ultimate good of society, and, once arrived at, an overweening confidence in one's own judgment — all these attitudes differently demonstrate the same trait. The mores of the community must definitely be observed when established and agreed upon, but in practice they remained forever open to challenge and subject to revision. No apology was required for unorthodoxy dictated by conscience in conference with Scripture; rather, any difference from custom created a compelling obligation for the individual to press toward conformity with his own new light.
Cross goes on in a footnote to add that "Certain angles of [this trait] survive the generations of Yankee descendants, and my discussion of it is based in part upon observation of acquaintances, my family, and myself".

The Beloved Republic; Psychoceramica

Posted by crshalizi at April 19, 2008 18:11 | permanent link

April 14, 2008

The End of the Age

Vanquished, the hero sails into the west, but legend says that he will return when his people's peril is most dire. (The legend does not say whether that was a promise or a threat.)

(Photo via Warren Ellis, who got it from English Russia)

Linkage

Posted by crshalizi at April 14, 2008 11:16 | permanent link

April 11, 2008

Solvitur ambulando

A: Hey, you over there, the one walking! You're doing it wrong.
B: Excuse me?
A: You're only using two feet! You should keep at least three of your six in contact with the ground at all times.
B: ...
A: Look, it's easily proved that's the optimal way to walk. Otherwise you'd be unstable, and if you were walking past a Dutchman he could kick one of your legs with his clogs and knock you over and then lecture you on how to make pancakes.
B: What? Why a Dutchman?
A: You can't trust the Dutch, they're everywhere! Besides, every time you walk it's really just like running the gauntlet at Schiphol.
B: It is?
A: Don't change the subject! Walking like that you're actually sessile!
B: I don't seem to be rooted in place...
A: It's a technical term. Look, it's very simple, these are all implications of the axioms of the theory of optimal walking and you're breaking them all. I can't get over how immobile you are, walking like that.
B: "Immobile"?
A: Well, you're not walking properly, are you?
B: Your theory seems to assume I have six legs.
A: Yes, exactly!
B: I only have two legs. It doesn't describe what I do at all.
A: It's a normative theory.
B: For something with six legs.
A: Yes.
B: I have two legs. Does your theory have any advice about how to walk on two legs?
A: Could you try crawling on your hands and knees?

Disclaimer: A is the one with the weird Batavophobia, not me.

Manual trackback: Vukutu

Learned Folly; Enigmas of Chance

Posted by crshalizi at April 11, 2008 20:11 | permanent link

April 10, 2008

Behold the Masses (Next Week at the CMU Statistics Seminar)

Attention conservation notice: Publicity for a talk at CMU next week. Of limited interest if you're not free and in Pittsburgh at 4 pm on Monday the 14th.

We are very happy to have Nathan Eagle, of the Media Lab and SFI, as our seminar speaker next week, talking about the extremely cool work he's been doing on some extremely large social networks.

"Inference in Complex Social Systems: Insights and Applications from the Behavior of the Aggregate"
Monday, 14 April 2008, 4 pm, Porter Hall 125C at Carnegie Mellon
Abstract: I have used mobile phones to continuously gather information including proximity, location, and communication from 100 human subjects at MIT. Systematic measurements from these people over the course of nine months has generated one of the largest dataset of continuous human behavior ever collected, representing over 300,000 hours of daily activity. Additionally, in collaboration with several European and African telecommunication companies, I am currently analyzing the call logs of entire countries - dynamic social networks consisting of up to 250 million nodes and 12 billion temporal edges.

In this talk I describe how this type of data can be used to uncover the structure in behavior of both individuals and organizations, infer relationships, and study social network dynamics. By combining theoretical models with rich and systematic measurements, we show it is possible to gain insight into the underlying behavior of complex social systems.

While results such as uncovering scaling laws from the communication patterns of hundreds of millions of people will certainly be one emphasis in this talk, of equal importance is how this data can enable applications that improve our society. I will demonstrate a variety ways these insights into our own behaviors can be used to develop applications that better support both the individual, organization and society.

The talk is of course free and open to the public; come if it sounds interesting (unless you're like some people who attend talks in Santa Fe [not that Nathan's work is remotely comparable to Sheldrake's]).

Networks; Enigmas of Chance; Complexity

Posted by crshalizi at April 10, 2008 08:40 | permanent link

April 01, 2008

He Is Risen

Fafblog has returned to us. Long live the new era of Fafno-Gibletsian rule over the cosmos!

Linkage

Posted by crshalizi at April 01, 2008 17:03 | permanent link

Three-Toed Sloth:   Hosted, but not endorsed, by the Center for the Study of Complex Systems