Title:
Climate-disease links in a nonlinear world

I'll be presenting some of my thesis work focussing on understanding
and predicting cholera dynamics in Bangladesh. A fundamental problem with
diseases that confer immunity to their hosts and that are forced
seasonally and interannually by environmental drivers is that the
resulting infectious disease dynamics are highly nonlinear. Due to
this nonlinearity, correlational analyses between suspected environmental
drivers and disease cases are problematic. I'll present a method that we
have used to disentangle the effects of immunity from climatic forcing,
and show how the fit of the model clearly indicates the strong role for
climate in driving cholera dynamics.

- OR -

Maybe I'll talk about edge-of-chaos population dynamics....